Climate Change and California Dreamin'

To any visitor to Europe from the United States-- casual or otherwise-- it is difficult to not observe that: people walk a lot more, public transportation is efficient, clean, reliable and has high ridership; gasoline costs are in excess of $7 per U.S. gallon; and recycling is quite a way of life. Yes, the Europeans are quite aware of climate change because it is hurting them economically, in their wallets. In the U.S., climate change has not had the same impact: gasoline prices are lower than elsewhere and electricity costs are fairly low. Frankly, the Europeans are stuck between two giants-- the United States and China-- the consumer and the one supplying the consumer goods. The latter two are in an engaging and to the world frustrating Sumo wrestling duel to see who can take down the other and preserve domestic political tranquility. For neither would want to admit to the domestic constituencies that they gave up. In the U.S., you have diverse political views that climate change legislation is to open the door to those "hucksters" China and India. The Chinese in turn are wanting to extract their pound of flesh on sticking it to the West that they had a bigger portion of the blame for the CO2 problem. And so it goes. Herewith are my views on what is going to transpire. The news I believe is good since green may mean gold to all parties concerned.

China and the U.S.

Sitting here in Vienna as the Copenhagen summit winds its way into its 2nd week with much more acrimony and discord than anticipated, I believe that before the week is over the main protagonists-- China and the U.S.-- WILL come to some agreement. You see the Chinese object vehemently to reporting emission reductions as they promised to 40% of their current output. However, internally, they have instituted very strict guidelines on electric power production by requiring all generators to provide emissions information if they wish to participate on the grid, along with a host of other parameters as part of their Grid Information System. This mandatory guide is nowhere near a reality in the U.S. So what will happen by the end of the week when the leaders of China and the U.S. meet? If they genuinely cannot find common ground then that meeting is not likely to take place. But I place my bet on China to act. It can spring up the GIS card as a way to quantify their emissions reduction progress, perhaps not publicly but in background. This of course will be made available if the West were to ante-up Western technology for renewables and clean generation.

India and the U.S.

India has a refreshingly different perspective. It needs to meet rising consumer demands for its 300+ million middle class population that is wanting all the creature comforts. In a sobering presentation at the 2nd U.S.-India Energy Efficiency Technology conference, November 16-17, 2009, world reknowned researcher, Jayant Sathaye, showed how India could reach CO2 reduction goals and rising consumer demand by adopting aggressive energy efficiency policies.

A combination of various energy efficiency measures -- including greener buildings, a smarter electric grid, more efficient home appliances and more advanced industrial and manufacturing processes -- have the potential to eliminate India's electricity shortage, reduce pollution and decrease its emissions of greenhouse gases, while boosting the country's economic output by as much as $500 billion over the next eight years, according to a theme paper that was presented the week of November 16 in New Delhi at the Second U.S.-India Energy Efficiency Technology Cooperation Conference. The paper was co-written by researchers from Berkeley Lab, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and ECO III.

Already, the U.S. has assisted several Indian regulators and utilities in setting up demand-side management, including training staff, analyzing costs and monitoring savings. "By sharing best practices among technical experts and regulators, we were able to help selected Indian utilities initiate demand-side programs in less than one year, which only a handful of states in the United States have achieved in the 30 years since utility reform began," said Jayant Sathaye, head of Berkeley Lab's International Energy Studies group.

Separately, Energy Secretary Steve Chu was in India recently meeting with Indian leaders to discuss opportunities for partnerships on clean energy technologies. "Tackling climate change and moving toward a clean energy economy requires action both at home and abroad, and I am encouraged by the progress we are seeing on both fronts," he said in a statement from India.

Poor Countries and Climate Change

Bangaldesh, Maldives, Madagascar, and a host of other low-lying islands have dramatically demonstrated effects of climate change. They are very much in the front end of the climate change spear. Maldives' engaging prime minister held a cabinet meeting under water to illustrate what could happen with even a minimal increase in sea level. Bangladesh made a more ominous threat that the West should promise to take care of several million climate change displaced citizens. These are not empty threats but very realistic. The European Union has promised $9 B Euro for aiding less developed countries.