The Decade that Was

Graph Courtesy of the New York Times December 30 2009

The BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—have emerged this past decade as the countries who have swung the globe into a multi-polar world. In all aspects—wealth, energy production, global clout—the BRICs have been vociferous about their views. The stock market indexes among the BRICs compared to the U.S. S&P 500 demonstrates the disparity in wealth growth. However, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product stands at $14 Trillion, China is a distant second at $4 T and India even further back at $1.5 T.

For the electric power industry, this past decade may go down as the decade of China and India. Not only are they buidling power plants rapidly, but their contribution to the CO2 in the atmosphere is becoming a significant fraction of the total.

As much as the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December 2009 drew a bright line on climate change solutions between the BRICs and the U.S. , we need to be prepared for a more challenging threat that the growth of wealth has indicated. And that is new energy producing technologies. Without legacy equipment to deal with and fewer dissensions among the public, India and China have quietly adopted energy efficiency standards and renewable energy targets that are very aggressive. China has become the world’s leader in solar and wind energy technologies; India is forced to consider wide spread demand side management to close the gap between increasing demand and supply.

What will the end of the next decade reveal for the power industry? Coal- and nuclear power are expected to be the bulwarks for base-loaded power. Less developed countries-- UAE, Jordan, Vietnam-- are likely to adopt smaller mor modular passively safe units, perhaps under strict compliance regimes by the U.N. IAEA. China and India are going to have larger fractions of the their generation portfolio in renewable energy, even larger than many of the Western countries. It is also likely that by the end of the next decade the entire populations of China and India will be electrified, an event that will spur economic growth to even higher levels.

Post-Copenhagen Summit

The press loves to draw winners and losers after a prolonged event, especially the Copenhagen summit that drew the entire world. Yes, there were the heavyweights: China and the U.S., respectively, the #1 and #2 CO2 emitters in the world. There were the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China that account for a significant fraction of the serious emitters. BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India and China-- with whom Obama spent some personal quality time. And then there was the Group of 77, a melange of nations. There was the African world, the Arab world, the smaller nations that are in the front line of climate changes, the Maldives, Bangladesh, etc.

No doubt any cooperative agreement has much to be lauded about. But a treaty was to say the least a bit too ambitious. In many ways, the scientists were not able to "market" the truly crippling effects of climate change. Face it. Science has always struggled to gets its message across. When the personal computer was introduced, there was more talk of bits and bytes, rather than the unleashing of creativity and the personal power of computers. When the internet was used, some scientists went on to proclaim that it was going to be a 1-day wonder. In the climate change argument, scientists may have gone too far in a blizzard of data without stopping to tell the story in a more convincing, simple way. Thus the "cooked up data" story purloined from e mails was given so much press. We need a "Climate Change for Dummies".

The U.S. has made a positive move

Hillary Clinton's offer of $100B to support climate change technologies by developing countries may change the game. This is no doubt to attract the BRIC countries-- Brazil, Russia, India and China-- into the fray so that an agreement can be reached by tomorrow, Friday.

Climate Change and California Dreamin'

To any visitor to Europe from the United States-- casual or otherwise-- it is difficult to not observe that: people walk a lot more, public transportation is efficient, clean, reliable and has high ridership; gasoline costs are in excess of $7 per U.S. gallon; and recycling is quite a way of life. Yes, the Europeans are quite aware of climate change because it is hurting them economically, in their wallets. In the U.S., climate change has not had the same impact: gasoline prices are lower than elsewhere and electricity costs are fairly low. Frankly, the Europeans are stuck between two giants-- the United States and China-- the consumer and the one supplying the consumer goods. The latter two are in an engaging and to the world frustrating Sumo wrestling duel to see who can take down the other and preserve domestic political tranquility. For neither would want to admit to the domestic constituencies that they gave up. In the U.S., you have diverse political views that climate change legislation is to open the door to those "hucksters" China and India. The Chinese in turn are wanting to extract their pound of flesh on sticking it to the West that they had a bigger portion of the blame for the CO2 problem. And so it goes. Herewith are my views on what is going to transpire. The news I believe is good since green may mean gold to all parties concerned.

China and the U.S.

Sitting here in Vienna as the Copenhagen summit winds its way into its 2nd week with much more acrimony and discord than anticipated, I believe that before the week is over the main protagonists-- China and the U.S.-- WILL come to some agreement. You see the Chinese object vehemently to reporting emission reductions as they promised to 40% of their current output. However, internally, they have instituted very strict guidelines on electric power production by requiring all generators to provide emissions information if they wish to participate on the grid, along with a host of other parameters as part of their Grid Information System. This mandatory guide is nowhere near a reality in the U.S. So what will happen by the end of the week when the leaders of China and the U.S. meet? If they genuinely cannot find common ground then that meeting is not likely to take place. But I place my bet on China to act. It can spring up the GIS card as a way to quantify their emissions reduction progress, perhaps not publicly but in background. This of course will be made available if the West were to ante-up Western technology for renewables and clean generation.

India and the U.S.

India has a refreshingly different perspective. It needs to meet rising consumer demands for its 300+ million middle class population that is wanting all the creature comforts. In a sobering presentation at the 2nd U.S.-India Energy Efficiency Technology conference, November 16-17, 2009, world reknowned researcher, Jayant Sathaye, showed how India could reach CO2 reduction goals and rising consumer demand by adopting aggressive energy efficiency policies.

A combination of various energy efficiency measures -- including greener buildings, a smarter electric grid, more efficient home appliances and more advanced industrial and manufacturing processes -- have the potential to eliminate India's electricity shortage, reduce pollution and decrease its emissions of greenhouse gases, while boosting the country's economic output by as much as $500 billion over the next eight years, according to a theme paper that was presented the week of November 16 in New Delhi at the Second U.S.-India Energy Efficiency Technology Cooperation Conference. The paper was co-written by researchers from Berkeley Lab, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and ECO III.

Already, the U.S. has assisted several Indian regulators and utilities in setting up demand-side management, including training staff, analyzing costs and monitoring savings. "By sharing best practices among technical experts and regulators, we were able to help selected Indian utilities initiate demand-side programs in less than one year, which only a handful of states in the United States have achieved in the 30 years since utility reform began," said Jayant Sathaye, head of Berkeley Lab's International Energy Studies group.

Separately, Energy Secretary Steve Chu was in India recently meeting with Indian leaders to discuss opportunities for partnerships on clean energy technologies. "Tackling climate change and moving toward a clean energy economy requires action both at home and abroad, and I am encouraged by the progress we are seeing on both fronts," he said in a statement from India.

Poor Countries and Climate Change

Bangaldesh, Maldives, Madagascar, and a host of other low-lying islands have dramatically demonstrated effects of climate change. They are very much in the front end of the climate change spear. Maldives' engaging prime minister held a cabinet meeting under water to illustrate what could happen with even a minimal increase in sea level. Bangladesh made a more ominous threat that the West should promise to take care of several million climate change displaced citizens. These are not empty threats but very realistic. The European Union has promised $9 B Euro for aiding less developed countries.

Visualization and the Smart Grid

Today’s competitive global economy requires continued advances in technology to achieve and maintain cost advantages. Critical to meeting this challenge is to ensure that the energy infrastructure is highly reliable and available and can deliver high quality power. However, the aging energy infrastructure coupled with increasing demand and more diverse power supply sources have made the energy grid more vulnerable to upsets caused by natural disasters, equipment failure, and human errors. Visualization of relevant power system parameters would improve operator situational awareness; however, the present methodologies to display the information are either too slow or have incomplete information. The August 2003 North American grid failure clearly demonstrated the need for visualization to more quickly alert operators on understanding transmission facilities status. Indeed one of the recommendations from the study (Recommendation 22) urged the use of wide-area situational visualization of the systems to better prepare the operators.

Signatech Systems, Inc., in collaboration with the University of North Carolina Charlotte (UNC Charlotte), proposes to exploit recent advances in multi-core processor and visualization technologies to design and develop revolutionary tools that will enable accurate visualization of distribution system data. This multi-phase effort will lead to the seamless integration of real-time and accurate visualization tools into the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system.

To ensure success, the project team will collaborate with the nation’s leading utility research organizations: the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories (PNNL) , in Richland, WA. If the project shows promising results under Phase I, the project team will solicit a domestic electric utility to cost-share efforts in Phase II to develop a prototype that meets the new reliability standards. The project team has obtained support from EPRI and PNNL to explore appropriate co-sponsorship and cost-share for the successful completion of the program and commercialization of the products.

Nuclear Power and Grid Stability Considerations for the Developing World

For a country that does not yet use nuclear power, the introduction and development of nuclear power is a major undertaking. It requires the country to build the necessary infrastructure so it can construct and operate a nuclear power plant (NPP) in a safe, secure and technically sound manner.

Signatech Systems is part of an international consultancy panel for the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (U.N. IAEA) in Vienna, Austria to update guidance for its members. Agency Guide NG-G-3.1 provides guidance on nineteen infrastructure issues that need to be addressed in the introduction of a nuclear power programme into a country. One of these infrastructure issues is the development of the electrical grid in the country. While most countries already have an electric grid system, it may require significant development to be suitable for the connection of an NPP. The safe, secure and reliable operation of the NPP requires that the grid to which it connects is also safe, secure and reliable. The grid system may require significant investment to achieve this security and reliability in addition to the specific investment to connect the NPP to the grid.

Grid Friendly Appliance for Demand Side Management

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Signatech Systems was part of a U.S. Department of Commerce delegation to India to promote energy efficiency and seek markets for U.S. products November 16-20, 2009, visiting 3 major urban centers-- New Delhi, Chennai and Mumbai.. The delegation was headed by Rick Wade, Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Commerce. The market for energy efficiency products is vast and nuanced since the demand growth far outstrips the power supply for the coming decades.

India is a distant fourth in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, behind China, the United States and Russia, but its rapid economic growth rate coupled with aging and inefficient energy infrastructure suggest dire environmental consequences if "business as usual" (BAU) continues. In a seminal presentation at the 2nd Energy Efficiency Technology Cooperation Conference in New Delhi, India, November 16-17, 2009, Dr. Jayant Sathaye provided an overview of the Indian power situation and the critical role energy efficiency will play in meeting power demands and reducing inefficiencies.
A combination of various energy efficiency measures -- including greener buildings, a smarter electric grid, more efficient home appliances and more advanced industrial and manufacturing processes -- have the potential to eliminate India's electricity shortage, reduce pollution and decrease its emissions of greenhouse gases, while boosting the country's economic output by as much as $500 billion over the next eight years, according to a theme paper that was presented the week of November 16 in New Delhi at the Second U.S.-India Energy Efficiency Technology Cooperation Conference. The paper was co-written by researchers from Berkeley Lab, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and ECO III.
Already, the U.S. has assisted several Indian regulators and utilities in setting up demand-side management, including training staff, analyzing costs and monitoring savings. "By sharing best practices among technical experts and regulators, we were able to help selected Indian utilities initiate demand-side programs in less than one year, which only a handful of states in the United States have achieved in the 30 years since utility reform began," said Jayant Sathaye, head of Berkeley Lab's International Energy Studies group.
Separately, Energy Secretary Steve Chu was in India recently meeting with Indian leaders to discuss opportunities for partnerships on clean energy technologies. "Tackling climate change and moving toward a clean energy economy requires action both at home and abroad, and I am encouraged by the progress we are seeing on both fronts," he said in a statement from India.
As in China, India's electricity supply is dominated by coal, which provides nearly 70 percent of the total. Another 35,000 MW of new coal-fired power plants are planned to come online by 2012, representing 250 million tons of potential new carbon dioxide emissions, or about 20 percent of the country's total emissions in 2006. Much of the rising demand for energy comes from the emerging middle class, as more and more people purchase TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and other appliances; vehicle ownership is also forecast to rise rapidly.
This concept paper lays down a case for conducting field demonstrations of a U.S.-developed technology for grid-friendly appliances. The circuitry senses underfrequency events on the grid and causes the appliance to go into reduced consumption mode or into a slumber mode until the grid comes back to stable operation. Because of the varying grid conditions, appliance sophistication, consumer habits, diversity of users in India, the demonstration in India will provide a much clearer picture of the potential for realizing reserve margins from the demand side. In turn, this will assist system planners for new builds, location, success of demand side management, possible incentive schemes that would require the grid operators, regulators, appliance makers and consumers to come together. Finally, as India prepares to progress toward a smart grid capability, the demonstration project will provide a template as to how the communication between all the stakeholders can be conducted, and in particular empower consumers to adopt a more proactive stance. Electricity will be viewed as value-added capability, instead of a simple commodity to “keep the lights on”.